The Big Picture –
By Glynn Wilson –
The pollsters and pundits are at it again.
Regular followers will recall what I wrote back in July, when I chastised the mainstream public opinion media establishment for predicting a Republican sweep of both houses of Congress in November simply based on historical precedent in midterm elections. I argued that we are in a different world now, and we are.
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I put the fear of Bejesus into them, and they changed their tune to match what I was saying. For the past three months, they have been talking about a rising advantage for Democrats based largely on women becoming outraged by the Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson, with the radical right-wing Trump-Bush court overturning all precedent and obliterating due process and equal protection of the law for women by completely overturning Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pa. v. Casey, the settled law of the land on abortion.
Now the pollsters and pundits have changed their tune, now claiming that Republicans have regained their advantage, according to the New York Times.
But wait.
Remember what I wrote back in early November 2016, when the mainstream public opinion media establishment was saying Hillary Clinton “had this,” even though the polls were only showing her with a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error? I warned people then that Trump had a very good chance of winning in 2016, and that’s exactly what happened. The pollsters had egg all over their faces.
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I commissioned this art before the 2016 election. The artist wanted to use Hillary Clinton for the politician being chased by the watchdog press. I insisted it had to be Trump, figuring he would win.
Well, it’s happening again, and this time they are adjusting their algorithms to favor Republicans, just in case they get it wrong again in the same way they did in 2016.
But I don’t believe it.
The corrections they are making to their polls to downplay the enthusiasm of Democrats to vote against the Trump Republicans in November is negatively influencing their judgement.
As an expert in public opinion, I know better than to just rely on polls. At the end of the day, when people show up to vote in November, I do not think mainstream Americans are going to go along with all this Republican Trump “Big Lie” bullshit.
Even a damn deputy graphics editor for the Times penned an op-ed this week saying the pollsters are on the verge of totally losing all credibility because their methods are fatally flawed in this changing world.
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Then, the Washington Post carried a story on Sunday highlighting the “traveling carnival of misinformation” that “merges entertainment, politics and theology and makes the existential argument to those attending…”
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As if this Trump cult made up a majority of Americans. I don’t believe it does.
Yes, Americans are dupes who can be fooled, and that’s true of all people everywhere. Just go back and read Mark Twain. People are suckers for charlatans and hucksters, carnival barkers and freaks.
But we are now 22 years into the 21st century, folks. This is NOT 1884 anymore. Surely we must be somewhat collectively smarter now than we were when Twain published The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn.
Again, these same pollsters and political analysts are blaming President Joe Biden and the Democrats for not getting their messages out successfully about all the things the Biden administration has accomplished in the past two years. Polls show that under 40 percent of the American people are aware of key legislative successes, including the Inflation Reduction Act.
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But that’s not the fault of the Democrats so much as it is the fault of the right-wing media, including talk radio, Fox News, Breitbart News and the rest. They simply will not cover it, so their followers are not aware of it.
Yet college educated, independent voters are aware of it, and they hold the power to swing elections. The under-educated, white, rural voters have their minds made up. They would vote for Trump and his white nationalist agenda even if he was proved to be the most corrupt politician in American history. He is, and we all know it. It doesn’t matter to them, but they are NOT a majority of Americans.
The Democrats have their minds made up. No way will they vote for these election deniers and climate change deniers in November.
It will all come down to the levels of voter turnout in the suburbs by women voters, and I believe we all know how they are going to vote.
Nate Cohn of the Times likes to use Google search results in his analysis. But he is on Twitter, not Facebook, where most people are. All I see on Facebook is women sharing memes showing how fired up they are to vote in RoeVember.
I say they will carry they day.
If I’m wrong, I’ll move to California. Which I’m probably going to do anyway.
It is possible that the Republicans could win in enough rural districts to take over the House. That would be bad enough.
But I do not believe this most recent shift in opinion to concern for inflation and crime over abortion will doom the Senate.
Surely the college educated independent and Republican voters in Georgia will not go the trouble to show up at polling places to cast a vote for the likes of Herschel Walker. I just don’t believe they will. And I expect a record turnout among women in this and every state. That will make the difference, and could even save the House if the voter turnout numbers are high enough, like they were when the Democrats took over the House in the midterms in 2018.
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