By Glynn Wilson –
Public Opinion Analyst –

Four new polls all show a clear backlash against Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker not only for the abortion scandal, but also domestic abuse allegations used in political ads against Walker over the past couple of months.

New polls from the Trafalgar Group, Quinnipiac University, Emerson College and InsiderAdvantage all show a drop in support for Walker and an increase in support from Senator Raphael Warnock since the story broke about allegations that the former star fullback Republican, who says he supports a total abortion ban without exceptions, paid for abortions for two ex-girlfriends. Of course he denies the stories, but some people in Georgia obviously believe the stories and have withdrawn their support for his candidacy, as the surveys show.

Warnock now holds a clear advantage of 4.1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight‘s polling average in the race, up from 2.1 points on the day the first abortion story broke. Those surveys showed the Democrat leading 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, on average, still within the margin of error, but a significant change from the virtual tie of 47 percent in the race before the story broke.

“That’s not a ton of movement,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich says. “But the consistency among pollsters gives us more confidence that it represents a true shift. And as a result, our forecast for Georgia’s U.S. Senate race has moved in the Democrats’ favor.”

Warnock now has a 59-in-100 chance of winning reelection, up slightly from 54-in-100 on Oct. 4.

Keep in mind that this movement is likely not occurring among the Trump “Big Lie” faithful, but among independent voters, women and college educated Republicans.

What else happened in September that could have hurt Walker or helped Warnock?

Democrats spent the month of September hammering Walker in TV ads over old allegations of domestic abuse. According to the Wesleyan Media Project, from Sept. 19 to Oct. 2, there were 7,257 pro-Democrat ads in the race compared to 5,934 pro-Republican ads.

In InsiderAdvantage’s Sept. 6-7 poll, taken before both the abortion revelations and the last several weeks of Democratic advertising but never released, showed Walker leading 47 percent to 44 percent. That suggests that the race moved 4 points toward Warnock between Sept. 6-7 and Oct. 3 according to this poll.

InsiderAdvantage then released the poll it took on Oct. 4, the day after the abortion story broke: It showed Warnock leading by 4 points. That suggests that the race moved an additional 3 points toward Warnock between Oct. 3 and Oct. 4, after the abortion story broke.

“Of course, this is just one poll,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich says. “But 3 points is still a lot of movement in just one day.”

Finally, InsiderAdvantage released a new poll just this week, conducted on Oct. 16. That poll gave Warnock a 3-point lead.

“So Walker may have started to recover from the bad headlines … or this may have just been an insignificant shift caused by normal polling error. All the other shifts are within the margin of error too.”

There are still three weeks until Election Day, so this isn’t the final word on Walker’s fate.

“It’s possible that his scandals will become old news and Walker will … recover in the polls,” they say.

According to their forecast, there’s an 18-in-100 chance that this race will go to a runoff on Dec. 6. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote in the general election, Georgia requires a runoff election to be held between the top two finishers.

“That could mean even more time for Walker’s scandals to recede into the rearview mirror — or for another scandal to occur,” they say. “So … don’t take your eyes off this race.”

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