The Big Picture –
By Glynn Wilson –
One of the most monumental midterm elections in the history of the United States will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and with one month to go, the outcome for American democracy is anything but assured.
While Emperor wannabe Donald Trump seems to be panicking, traveling around the country telling voters to pretend he’s on the ballot and offering fake bribes of Caesar’s gold for people to vote Republican, many Republican candidates are cringing, wishing he would just stay out of it. It’s bad enough that his popularity is the worst ever due mainly to inflation, caused by his unsuccessful trade war and unwinnable war in the Middle East. Republicans are panicking over the price of gas, diesel, groceries and rising home mortgage rates.
While the Republicans technically should have had some advantages going into the midterms, the smart money is on a blue wave come November – that is if Elon Musk doesn’t help steal elections in key places to save Trump from having to claim it was stolen after the fact.
In addition to the latest polling, which many people no longer trust, history is on the side of Democrats. The president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterms, especially if the economy is bad and the president is unpopular.
How unpopular is Trump? His net approval rating is -26 as of this press deadline, and only 35% of Americans approve of the job he’s doing, while a solid majority of 61% disapprove. Data shows Trump’s numbers under water on the economy as well. Voter registration and primary turnout this year favors the Democrats, and Latino voters who favored Trump in 2024 are running for the other side due to Trump’s overzealous ICE immigration crackdown and the economy.
Public opinion experts say the House map for 2026 just keeps getting better for Democrats. The Cook Political Report shifted 15 races toward Democrats this month, creating three new “tossup” districts in conservative areas of North Carolina, Texas and Florida, and made another 10 red districts closer than ever.
Trump is so desperate he’s using taxpayer money for ads “Paid for by the U.S. Government.” Critics claim this violates laws against using public funds for partisan propaganda, and even Republicans have come out against them.
“I don’t think any public official, including President Trump or Kristi Noem or John Kennedy, should spend public money on … private ads for themselves,” Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, said on “Face the Nation.”
Republican incumbent Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey is in trouble after the news broke that he was absent from the House for months this year, blaming it on depression.
Several Senate races in Republican states are also tilting toward Democrats, according to recent New York Times/Siena polls. A month before the midterms, Democrats had opened up leads or battled their way to ties in five reliably Republican states where they are trying to flip Senate seats to control the upper chamber.
Democrats lead among likely voters in Senate races in Texas and Alaska, two states that consistently vote Republican. They have an edge in Ohio, which has been tilting to the right for years. Republicans have a slim edge in Iowa still, but Democrats are neck-and-neck with Republicans in Kansas, which has not voted for a Democratic senator since 1932.
To win control of the Senate, as well as the House, Democrats need to flip four Republican seats while holding on to their seats in three battleground states. So it’s no done deal yet, although there are signs it’s increasingly possible, if attacks on mail voting and other measures do not suppress the vote.
A Republican Senate Leadership Fund super PAC pulled its money out of the Senate race in North Carolina, redirecting ad money to Kansas, where a Republicans have growing concerns about holding the seat held by Roger Marshall. He’s being challenged by the Rev. Adam Hamilton, and the race is tied with four weeks to go. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper holds a commanding lead over Republican former RNC Chair Michael Whatley.
James Talarico, a Democratic state representative in Texas, has opened up a six point lead in the race against Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued attorney general and Republican nominee who has been strongly defended by Trump anyway.
Former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat in Alaska, is running ahead of Senator Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, by seven points, in spite of a staff scandal. The polling aligns with the results of the state’s primary in August, when Peltola and Sullivan appeared on the same ballot. She won by eight points.
Representative Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee in Iowa, holds a one-point lead over the Democrat, state representative Josh Turek.
Former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat in Ohio, holds a narrow three-point lead in his comeback bid against Senator Jon Husted, the Republican incumbent. Brown has an 11-point lead over Husted on the question of who would better handle the increasingly potent political issue of data centers, which have become controversial across the country as the public grows more and more concerned about the environmental and societal impacts of Artificial Intelligence.
Polls suggest Democrats are beating Republicans with independent voters, who usually decide elections.
On the national level, Democrats are not as well funded and organized as they should be, so it will be up to the individual candidates to bring home a blue wave in their states and put Trump on the defensive for the remainder of his disastrous second term. It’s arguably even worse than the first, which was marred by a disastrous budget deficit due to his tax breaks for the rich and awful response to the Covid pandemic.
As for the future of American democracy, much will depend on a House impeachment investigation of Trump – and this time with a conviction in the Senate. The best outcome would be a guilty verdict and a vote to remove his ass from the White House, a post for which even Republicans like Liz Cheney said he should never be allowed near again after inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection. Locking him up along with half his corrupt family and cabinet may be too much to wish for, but Americans can hope.
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Originally written as a syndicated column for The Progressive Populist newspaper out of Austin, Texas and Iowa.
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