President Joe Biden Rides Independent Wave to Higher Job Approval Rating

By Glynn Wilson –

Joe Biden is back.

With 75 days to go until the midterm elections, old Joe Biden is riding a blue wave back toward presidential popularity with independent, swing voters now that gas prices are going down and the people are finding out about the passage of a historic climate, health care and tax bill that was stalled for a year.

The president took a victory lap and began an election swing in Maryland on Thursday, taking direct aim at “MAGA Republicans,” accusing Trump supporters of embracing political violence and threatening abortion rights.

After hitting a record low job approval rating in July, Biden’s job approval rating is up six percentage points in the latest Gallup poll to 44 percent, his highest in a year

The increase in Biden’s job approval rating is largely buoyed by political independents, whose approval rose from 31 percent last month to 40 percent in August. Eighty-one percent of Democrats still approve of the job Biden is doing, but only 4 percent of Republicans say they do, still showing a significant partisan divide.

While recovering from COVID-19, the president announced the U.S. military had found and killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri. Then the Senate Democrats finally got together and passed Biden’s sweeping domestic spending plan, the Inflation Reduction Act, a major healthcare, climate and tax package.

Although high inflation and recession fears continue to plague the nation, according to Gallup, there has been some recent positive economic news with average gas prices falling below $4 per gallon, a better-than-expected jobs report and a slight decline in the inflation rate.

The poll was completed just before Biden announced his student loan forgiveness plan that would cut debt for millions of Americans.

Biden Rated Best for Handling COVID-19 Response, Environment

Of 11 issues people were asked about, Biden is rated highest for his management of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is the only issue that garners majority-level approval (58%), including from 88 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of independents and 20 percent of Republicans. Approval of Biden’s handling of the environment is at 50 percent, and is the only other issue with majority-level approval from independents. Democrats’ ratings of Biden’s handling of the other nine issues range from 63 percent to 78 percent.

Between 41 and 46 percent of adults in the U.S. approve of the way the president is handling education, the situation in Ukraine, energy policy and foreign affairs. Fewer, 31 percent to 39 percent of Americans, approve of the way Biden is managing relations with Russia, immigration, gun policy, abortion policy and the economy, with his economy rating the lowest.

Gallup last measured Biden’s approval ratings on six of these issues in March. Support for his handling of the pandemic response, the environment and energy policy each has risen five points since then, while falling five points for the economy. Biden’s ratings on foreign affairs and relations with Russia are statistically unchanged from March’s readings.

Historical Context of Presidential Approval Ratings

The latest improvement in Biden’s overall approval rating puts him in better standing in the August before midterm elections than five of his predecessors over the past 40 years — Ronald Reagan in 1982, Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in 2014 and Donald Trump in 2018.

However, Biden’s August job rating is dwarfed by the 61 percent to 75 percent readings for Reagan in 1986, George H.W. Bush in 1990, Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002. Obama’s August 2010 pre-midterm rating matches Biden’s current 44 percent.

Gallup’s Bottom Line

“Biden, whose approval rating was slumping prior to August, appears to be benefiting from recent wins as well as a slightly improved economy,” Gallup says in its analysis of the numbers. “A Gallup analysis of key election indicators in June suggested that the U.S. political environment was particularly unfavorable for Democrats. Biden’s job approval remains below the 50 percent mark, which usually spells a difficult midterm election year for the incumbent president’s party — but if Biden can keep this momentum going, it could positively impact congressional Democrats’ chances in November.”

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