A satellite image of Hurricane Ida approaching land in the Gulf of Mexico on August 29, 2021: NOAA
Staff Report –
It’s that time of year again when the weather begins to grow hotter and the hurricanes start forming off the west coast of Africa and swirling across the Atlantic Ocean toward the United States.
And yes, the planet is still growing hotter due to global warming from the burning of fossil fuels so the ocean temperatures are warmer too, meaning more powerful storms are in the forecast.
Another above-average hurricane season is on the way for summer 2022, according to forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. If the forecast holds up, it will be the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season in a row.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.
The outlook calls for 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, and 6 to 10 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. The forecast calls for 3 to 6 major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 strength with winds of 111 mph or higher. The agency has a 70 percent confidence rating for this outlook.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo said in making the announcement. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon season. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons.
“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago — remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”
The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.
A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30: NOAA
“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”
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