Election Analysis –
By Glynn Wilson –
WASHINGTON, D.C. — As the midterm elections loom in November, the nation’s attention is focused on the election maps and races for the U.S. Senate and House. It is a critical election year in determining the direction of American democracy and whether the Democrats will have the votes to challenge the agenda of President Donald J. Trump and bring impeachment charges in the House and hold a trial to remove him from office in the Senate.
While Republicans now hold a 51-49 seat majority in the Senate, counting two independents who caucus with the Democrats and with Republican Vice President Mike Pence holding the power of a tie-breaking vote if needed, the Republicans have a chance to hold onto a majority mainly since they are only having to defend nine seats this year while the Democrats must defend 26 seats — five of them in states where President Trump won by 19 points or more in 2016.
The Democrats will need to hold onto most their current seats and pick up a net gain of at least two Republican spots to take over a majority. National pollsters and pundits give them a chance, but less of a chance than the prospect of taking over the House.
Alabama did its part in 2017 when a record 40 percent of voters turned out in a special election and voted to send Democrat Doug Jones to Washington instead of Republican Roy Moore to replace Trump’s pick for attorney general, Jeff Sessions, in the Senate.
Now Democrats in a few key states have a chance to do their part Nov. 6: Real Clear Politics Map — BallotPedia Battlegrounds.
Key Battleground States
Democrats need to win most of these races to create a Blue Wave, which could create coattails in other local races in these key states as well.
1. Arizona
Junior Republican Senator Jeff Flake, who has been outspoken in his criticism of President Donald J. Trump, decided not to run for reelection last year fearing a challenge from the political right.
In the wake of Senator John McCain’s death, and the growing unpopularity of Trump there, perhaps Flake has a modicum of regret, although he has not expressed it publicly.
In any event, his decision opens the door for a Democrat to have a chance in Arizona, which appears to be moving to the political left and away from Trump, some election experts say. Trump only won the state by 4 points in 2016. Trump’s critical comments of McCain have alienated Republicans and Democrats, and should be a motivating factor in fueling turnout.
Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, a member of the U.S. House in Arizona’s Ninth District, will face off against another woman in the House, Republican Martha McSally, an outspoken former fighter pilot.
Recent polls have McSally leading by a slight margin of 3 percent, within the margin of error, making the race too close to call. Voter turnout will be critical here if a Blue Wave is to roll in Arizona and across the country.
2. Texas
Freshman Republican Senator Ted Cruz, an outspoken religious conservative in his first term who also ran for President in 2016, faces a well-funded challenge from Democrat Beto O’Rourke, a three-term member of the House in the Sixteenth Congressional District.
While Texas has voted to send a Republican to the White House, the U.S. Senate, and the governor’s office in every statewide election since 1994, the influential Bush family has been outspoken in its criticism of Trump, perhaps creating an opening for O’Rourke. He has put together an impressive ground campaign and a big get out the vote effort, and raised millions of dollars to take on the better known Cruz.
Through the second quarter of 2018, O’Rourke posted the second-highest total fundraising numbers of any Democratic Senate candidate with $23.3 million in contributions. Cruz raised slightly more over the same time period with $23.4 million.
Latino voters and women sympathetic to them could hold the key to victory here in a state that has been horrified by the Trump administration’s policy of separating immigrant children from their parents and detaining them indefinitely.
Cruz could well be on the way out.
3. Mississippi
This is the race that has the potential to play out the most like Alabama, with a special election to replace Republican Thad Cochran, who announced on March 5, 2018 that he would resign his seat for health reasons.
It is a four-way race between Cindy Hyde-Smith, who was appointed to the seat by Republican Governor Phil Bryant, Republican challenger Chris McDaniel and Democrats Mike Espy and Tobey Bartee.
While early polling showed no candidate approaching the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff Nov. 27, making such a runoff likely, and no Democrat has represented Mississippi since John C. Stennis in 1989, the Democratic Party has coalesced around Espy.
“I need Obama-level turnout numbers,” Espy said on how to turn the seat blue. We will see if he gets it.
4. Tennessee
In another toss-up race where the incumbent Republican, Bob Corker, announced that he would not seek reelection in 2018, Tennessee has a chance to help the Democrats take control of the Senate in November.
Former Governor Phil Bredesen will face off against U.S. House member Marsha Blackburn Nov. 6.
Here again, voter turnout will be critical, and the primary numbers look similar to Alabama’s races this year, where far more Republicans turned out than Democrats. Blackburn won the primary with 84.5 percent of the vote, with 612,954 total votes. Bredesen won his primary with 91.5 percent of the vote, but only 349,093 Democrats turned out to vote for him.
A lot of money is being pumped into the race from both sides. If the Democrats want a Blue Wave here and across the country, they will have to turn out and vote in record numbers.
5. Missouri
Incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill faces a competitive general election challenge from Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley in a state where Trump won in 2016 by 18.5 percent.
According to CNN, this is one of the rare states where Mitch McConnell and white nationalist Steve Bannon are on the same page, both mainstream and insurgent tea party camps supporting Hawley. The race is turning out to be both expensive and dirty. After the third quarter of 2017, McCaskill had $7.1 million in cash on hand. She set a record in the first quarter of 2017 for the most money raised by a Senate candidate ever in the state.
According to the pollsters and pundits, this race is also too close to call, so voter turnout will be key.
McCaskill is running as a moderate Democrat, going after independents and some Republican votes, so it is not clear how fired up women and Democrats will be to turn out and vote for her. That will make all the difference in whether this race is part of a Blue Wave or a Red Wave. It could prove to be a critical win for Democrats if they hope to take control of the Senate. A loss here might dash hopes of a Blue Wave across the country.
6. Nevada
First term Senator Dean Heller is the only incumbent Republican representing a state won by Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, giving the Democrats some hope for picking up this seat.
He earned the ire of President Trump for initially fighting the Republican attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, and he faces a challenge from House member Jacky Rosen, a woman computer software developer in a year when women are fired up and expected to turn out in record numbers.
While the race is considered too close to call, CNN and other analysts considers it a toss-up with a fair chance of flipping in favor of the Democrats.
“Heller’s gymnastics on health care helped earn Nevada the top spot in our initial rankings,” CNN says in its analysis. “It only drops because of an even messier and more damaging Republican primary in Arizona.”
7. Florida
Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson faces a challenge from term-limited Republican Governor Rick Scott in this Senate race that could siphon millions of dollars from Democratic Party coffers to hold onto the seat.
While as in any race like this the power of incumbency should win out, polls have the race in a dead heat tie. Voter turnout will determine the winner.
8. Indiana
Moderate Democrat Joe Donnelly should be able to hold off a challenge from Republican Mike Braun, although polls have the race close since Indiana is a conservative, Republican state where Trump won handily in 2016 by 10 points.
Here the waxing or waning of Trump’s popularity could be a factor, and like everywhere else, which side’s voters turn out on Election Day.
Some pollsters and pundits are saying incumbent Joe Manchin is one of the most vulnerable of Senate Democrats, considering Trump won West Virginia by 42 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
But he has managed to ingratiate himself with the president and at least appear cooperative on some issues, while his opponent, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, comes off as a total Trump acolyte.
If the coal miners in West Virginia would ever wake up to the fact that they’ve been played for fools all along by Trump — perhaps if the mainstream media and/or Manchin would bother to tell them — this race would not even be close.
Historically, coal mining country went heavily for Democrats. This only changed in recent decades because Republicans learned to play the race and religion cards to win elections.
Since Trump has not been able to deliver on his promises of putting more coal miners and other union workers to work since his election, this certainly should and could be used against him.
Who will turn out to vote?
10. North Dakota
Again, if the power of incumbency holds, and if the #Yearofthewoman matters, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp should be able to hold onto this Senate seat.
But don’t tell that to her opponent Kevin Cramer, who has met with Trump and is running as a loyal Trump supporter. Trump won North Dakota by 36 points in 2016, while Heitkamp won her seat by less than 1 point in 2012.
Here again, Trump’s approval rating on Election Day and voter turnout hold the keys to the outcome.
11. Montana
This is going to sound like a broken record repeating itself, but this race presents a similar scenario.
Incumbent Jon Tester faces a lesser known Republican challenger in Matt Rosendale in a state where Trump won by 21 points.
Plus, there is a Libertarian Party candidate on the ballot, which should siphon votes from the Republican.
Rosendale, while now a rancher in Montana, is not a native of the state who moved there from Maryland where he was a real estate salesman. I doubt he can win this one, but you never know until the votes are counted.
My Analysis
After looking closely at all the factors in these races and the polls as they exist now, and considering the political climate, interim election results, and partisan enthusiasm that favors Democrats since Trump’s unlikely election, I would say the Democrats have a better than 50 percent chance of taking control of the Senate.
But it will depend on the performance of each individual candidate, Trump’s approval rating, and which side does the better job of getting their voters to the polls on Election Day.
I didn’t include Minnesota in this analysis as some others did since it really doesn’t look that close.
Elections matter. Every vote counts. The future of our Democracy depends on it. Get registered and go vote.
* Watch for our analysis of the House soon.
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