By Glynn Wilson –
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The shrinking popularity of President Donald Trump and the public pronouncements and policies of his administration are creating a boost for Democrats that could play out to their advantage going into the 2018 mid-term election cycle.
A Gallup poll just released shows a significant increase in the American public’s favorability rating of Democrats and a decrease in confidence of Republicans since May. Now 44 percent of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably, while only 36 percent view the Republicans favorably.
“The Democratic Party has regained a significant advantage over the Republican Party in favorability in recent months,” Gallup says in its analysis of the latest numbers. “This is a shift since May, when the parties were essentially tied.”
Democrats’ chances of having a strong 2018 election cycle will be enhanced if they go into the year with a more positive public image than Republicans, according to Gallup, as was the case in 2006 and 2008.
President Trump has been under constant media fire since his election last November, with multiple investigations into his campaign’s collusion with Russia to hack and sway the election. He is now bogged down in a war of words with the National Football League over protests of racial discrimination during the National Anthem at football games.
In September 2016, during the fall presidential campaign with Hillary Clinton ensconced in a national media scandal over her use of a private email server for government business and the hacking and public release of those emails, the party’s edge slipped to three points.
Gallup points out that Americans usually rate the Democratic Party better than the Republican Party over time since the question was first asked in 1992. The record-low Republican favorability rating of 28 percent came in October 2013, during the partial government shutdown led by the Republican Congress.
“The changes in party ratings since May are largely a function of higher ratings of the Democratic Party among Democrats and lower ratings of the Republican Party among independents,” Gallup says. “The overall decline in GOP favorability ratings is largely because independents are less positive toward the party.”
This could be a factor in mid-term elections. Independents are the key swing votes that carry much influence in election outcomes.
© 2017, Glynn Wilson. All rights reserved.