Handicapping the U.S. Presidential Election

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By Glynn Wilson –

Voting day for the presidential election of 2016 is less than three months down the road now, Tuesday, November 8, and there’s still no clear front runner.

People have their opinions, but to what source should people pay attention in such matters?

I was just out in the yard talking to a neighbor, who clearly does not like Hillary Clinton and claims he’s “no fan of Donald Trump.”

After talking about all the latest stories and the polls, he concluded in the end: “I don’t know. I’ve just got this feeling that Trump will win.”

He’s a “free market capitalist all the way,” though, who only liked Bernie Sanders for some of the things he was saying — and for giving Clinton grief.

According to the latest polls, which people seem to love to hate, Hillary Clinton is leading the national popular vote 43-40 percent in the latest Rasmussen poll, 40-35 percent in the latest Reuters poll, and 40-41 percent in the latest Suffolk University poll. All of those polls have the results within the 3-5 percent margin of error, though, which means the race is too close to call.

Bloomberg has Clinton up 50-44 percent, a stronger lead.

Many people have come to follow Nate Silver in such matters, who looks more at key swing state polls.

He says Clinton’s chances of winning the presidential election declined by nearly 3 percentage points this week, but he still has her with an 85 percent chance to win the presidency.

Clinton is looking good in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with one poll showing her with a 13-percentage-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin.

So what if you don’t believe polls? There is always a “stealth” vote out there on the right that has to be taken into account by weighting the survey results.

So you don’t think the Christian Right answers pollsters’ questions, and they will break for Trump? That could be.

If you don’t trust polls, what about the oddsmakers?

Paddy Power still has Clinton in the money at 2/9, with Trump a 3/1 underdog.

As an expert at public opinion and a knowledgable odds maker myself, in addition to being an educated and experienced journalist who makes it a point to read between the headlines, there is one more factor to consider.

There are some very rich and powerful people who play an important role in ruling in this world and this country, and they do not trust Trump. He is a lose canon who will do and say anything, and his sentences show he is not an informed reader. He doesn’t listen to or take advice.

Clinton, on the other hand, is a proven member of the corporate establishment who has worked with the CIA, the Secret Service, the NSA, etc. as First Lady, a U.S. Senator and Secretry of State. So if the intelligence community has anything to say about who gets to be the next president — and I say they do — then it is a good bet at this point that they will not let Trump in the White House door. She, on the other hand, will be quite welcome in the White House.

See this story: Corporate News Wrong Again: Secret Service Did Not Question Trump on Second Amendment Comments

You can’t trust the mainstream media on this. They are sort of like Trump. They will say and do anything for viewers, readers, traffic, etc. to maximize profits. The big media conglomerates in this country have already made a fortune off the Trump campaign. But at the end of the day, they will make just as much taking him down.

See this story to see what I mean:

So Newhouse Gave Us Trump: Now They Will Profit by Taking Him Down?

So my money’s on Hillary. You?

© 2016, Glynn Wilson. All rights reserved.