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The Big Picture –
By Glynn Wilson –

WASHINGTON, D.C. – What to do about Donald Trump?

Democrats and some Republicans and independents are trying to think of some way to counter the radical transformation of American democracy and government underway by this president. Perhaps the best hope, other than the courts, is to retake a majority in the House and Senate in 2026 and impeach Trump in the House, again, and this time convict him in the Senate and remove him from office and begin the process of rebuilding the government he has set about destroying.

Some political writers are beginning to take on these questions, with mixed results.

Back in May, New York magazine ran a sensational click bait story under the misleading headline: Democrats Have a Real Shot at Retaking the Senate in 2026. They go on to report on why this option is not very politically viable, but got people to click on it anyway. They link to a more balanced analysis in the New York Times, which also carried a story in May under this headline: How Democrats Hope to Overcome a Daunting 2026 Senate Map

This story admits retaking both the House and Senate comes with “long odds,” and why, but quotes Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer anyway, claiming the Senate Democrats “are trying to think outside the box and recruit candidates who might be able to pull off upsets in red states.”

“We are going to be in the majority in 2027,” Schumer of New York “boldly predicted last month.”

But Democrats must confront the “brutal reality” of an electoral map where all but two of the 22 Republican seats up for election are in states that Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points in 2024. That’s brutal.

“Winning in such hostile territory has grown harder and harder as Senate contests increasingly align with presidential voting,” the Times reports. “Republicans now occupy every seat in the states that … Trump won all three times he was on the ballot, powering their 53-seat majority.”

To break that stranglehold, they report, Schumer has been dialing up past and present politicians in hopes of landing previous red-state winners, like former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and former Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina.

They are looking for “political lottery tickets” in places like Alaska, Mississippi and Texas. Some are even quietly talking about backing independent candidates instead of Democrats in especially challenging states, including Nebraska, where the independent Dan Osborn is considering a second Senate run.

“This map is far more intriguing than initially meets the eye,” said Justin Barasky, a Democratic strategist who has worked on Senate races for years. “There are going to be a bunch of states that are incredibly competitive that people may not be thinking about.”

So Democrats “aim to put as many politically viable boats in the water as possible” as a major public opinion backlash develops against Trump’s policies, especially the big bill’s cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and SNAP benefits, while the bill grants massive tax breaks to corporations and the wealthiest 1% of Americans. His ill-conceived trade war with the entire world is also roiling the national and global economies, and people are starting to feel it.

To have any chance at control, Democrats will need to venture far beyond the two clearly competitive states: Maine, where Senator Susan Collins’s moderate reputation has allowed her to succeed as a Republican, and North Carolina, a battleground where Republican Senator Thom Tillis was seeking re-election, until he wasn’t. He voted against Trump’s big bill last week, and announced that he would not seek reelection, after Trump threatened conservative opposition in the primary there.

The optimistic map doesn’t even take into account all the territory Democrats must defend in 2026, what with all the retirements of senators in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat and the youngest Senator, is seeking re-election in Georgia. Republicans had hoped Governor Brian Kemp would challenge him, but so far he is saying no to running.

Alex Latcham, the executive director of the leading Senate Republican super PAC, expressed confidence in holding a Senate majority.

“Democrats are delusional,” he said. “We welcome their effort to waste resources in states they’re never going to win. We’re going to beat the hell out of them.”

Republicans say they are determined not to be caught sleeping in seemingly safe states, especially after independent Dan Osborn forced Republicans to scramble to save Senator Deb Fischer in Nebraska.

Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has told colleagues that a top priority is to avoid spending money in places that should not be competitive. Every Republican senator running in 2026 was expected to have struck a critical fund-raising agreement with the party by mid-May.

The two Republican seats everyone agrees are competitive lie in North Carolina and Maine.

Schumer has pursued Cooper in North Carolina, telling him during a conversation about disaster relief last year that he would make a great Senate candidate, according to a person briefed on the call. Cooper has not made a decision about that.

It is even less clear who the Democrats might find to run as a viable against Collins. Governor Janet Mills, 77, has left the door open, according to the Times, but some in the party worry about her age. Representative Jared Golden has expressed interest in statewide office and occupies a pro-Trump seat, but some Democrats dislike his moderate positions. A former congressional aide, Jordan Wood, is already running.

The next tier of races is in once-competitive states that have slipped from the grasp of Democrats in recent years, like Ohio, where Senator Jon Husted, the Republican appointed to fill Vice President JD Vance’s seat, must stand for election, and Iowa, where Senator Joni Ernst is seeking her third term.

Ernst mollified some Republican critics when, under pressure, she backed Pete Hegseth for defense secretary. She has already drawn a Democratic challenger in Nathan Sage, who bills himself as a mechanic, a Marine and the product of a trailer park. His kickoff video was filled with working-class appeals.

“I’m fighting for a Democratic Party that people like me will actually want to be a part of,” he says.

J.D. Scholten, a state legislator who narrowly lost a 2018 congressional bid in Iowa’s most conservative district, said he was considering a Senate campaign. He is a rare Democrat in the state’s northwest — “a blueberry in a bowl of tomato soup,” he said — and has recently held rallies in other parts of the state. Timing on a campaign could be complicated by his other job as a 45-year-old professional baseball pitcher; he just signed for another season with the Sioux City Explorers.

Zach Wahls, an Iowa state senator who burst onto the political radar as a teenager testifying about growing up with two moms, said he was also exploring a Senate run. “Ernst is vulnerable,” he said.

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Long Shots

The long shots include seats in Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina and Texas.

The top potential Democratic recruit in Alaska is Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman who narrowly lost her seat in 2024 and has since joined a lobbying law firm. But she might instead run for governor or even seek to return to the House. Anton McParland, her former chief of staff, said she was probably months away from a decision. He added, “No Alaskan really wants to be in D.C.”

And who can blame them? It’s a mad dog world in Washington right now. I know. I’m here.

Schumer has told associates that he sees an intriguing opportunity in Mississippi, which has the largest percentage of Black residents of any state making up 37.8 percent of the population. One possible candidate there is Scott Colom, a district attorney who was appointed by President Joe Biden to a federal judgeship — only to be blocked by Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, whom Colom would be running against in 2026. The state is also appealing for Democrats because it is small and relatively cheap to compete in.

Democrats also hope that states with bruising Republican primary races could create openings, though Democrats themselves face potentially messy primaries in Minnesota and Michigan.

In Louisiana, Schumer has spoken by phone and met once in Washington with former Governor John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, according to sources. Senator Bill Cassidy, the Republican incumbent, faces at least one primary challenger after voting to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial. Edwards has signaled to party leaders he will be closer to a decision by August.

In Kentucky, Republicans appear headed toward a three-way primary scrum to replace the retiring Senator Mitch McConnell. Democrats have yet to land a prominent candidate. Schumer has pressed Governor Andy Beshear, who became popular in the last election cycle and was considered on a short list for Vice President on the ticket with Kamala Harris. But Beshear appears to be more interested in a presidential run in 2028.

“I’ve said no to running for Senate,” he said in a brief interview. But he would do well to reconsider, considering the record of Barack Obama, who got elected to the Senate from Illinois before going on to run for president in 2008.

Democrats in Texas are energized by a Republican primary between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton that is expected to be costly and ugly. Yet the winner will still be heavily favored.

“There is a civil war rolling through the Texas Republican Party right now,” said former Representative Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat who broke fund-raising records during his unsuccessful Senate bid in 2018. He said in an interview that he would consider running again if it were “where I am most useful.”

Colin Allred, a Democratic former congressman who raised nearly $100 million running for Senate last year, said he was “seriously considering” another bid after losing to Senator Ted Cruz by nine points. He said he would decide by summer.

Terry Virts, a former astronaut and International Space Station commander, has sounded out Democrats, including O’Rourke, as he seriously considers a campaign, sources say. He has begun sharing more political opinions, including his opposition to Elon Musk. with a social media following he amassed through his space photography.

As for Elon Musk, he’s now claiming he will soon start his own political party, although no one thinks that’s going anywhere, since his popularity has now been tarnished after leading a failed, destructive DOGE effort in Washington and then going through a bruising falling out in public with Trump and the MAGA crowd.

Elon Musk Says He Will Start a New Political Party

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Independents

Another option for Democrats is to avoid fielding a candidate altogether and to back an independent instead. That strategy made recent races more competitive in Alaska, Utah and Nebraska, though Republicans ultimately won.

In Nebraska, Osborn is exploring a second independent run on a populist message. A Navy veteran and mechanic, he far outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris and forced Republicans to spend millions of dollars to keep the seat last year. He reported several big donations from national Democrats after the election.

An independent candidate, Brian Bengs, entered the South Dakota Senate race after losing heavily as a Democrat in 2022. That year, he said in an interview, he met many voters who agreed with him only to add that they would never vote for him.

“They ruled out any possibility of supporting me,” he said, “because the letter D was beside my name.”

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A Midterm Fact

New York magazine’s more optimistic coverage hinges mainly on one political fact: Historically the president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterms. Democrats gained 41 net seats and flipped the House in the 2018 midterms after Trump’s first election.

“If Republicans lose the House in 2026, they won’t be able to enact ‘big beautiful’ budget-reconciliation bills that Democrats can’t filibuster,” they point out.

If Republicans lose the House yet still hold a majority in the Senate, Senators could stop impeachment like they did the first two times, and still get his judicial- and executive-branch appointees confirmed. Democrats won’t be able to score any major legislative victories or change Trump’s agenda in any significant ways.

The Cook Political Report rates 19 of these 20 Senate seats up for grabs as “solid Republican,” meaning the races shouldn’t be competitive at all. Democrats must defend two seats in states Trump won in 2024, Georgia and Michigan, and four of their seats – in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire – have no incumbent running. Flipping the Senate would require a net gain of four seats due to Vice-President J.D. Vance’s tie-breaking vote.

“The arithmetic for doing that with just three competitive races for Republican-held seats is daunting, to put it mildly,” they say. “Democrats need to win all seven of the races Cook rates as competitive and then somehow make a safe Republican seat unsafe.”

Public opinion expert Nate Silver, who has a mixed record on calling races in recent years, says Democrats could have a strong wind at their backs in the midterms.

“I’m a fan of what groups like Cook and Crystal Ball do,” he said. “But having been in the forecasting game for a long time, they have what I consider to be a persistent bias. Namely, they tend to assume a politically neutral environment until there’s a lot of evidence to the contrary. This assumption is wrong. It ignores years and years of history of the president’s party performing poorly in the midterms.”

“In fact,” he said, “the pattern looks a lot like 2018, when Democrats won the popular vote for the House by 8.6 points.”

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Final Analysis

But you can’t really predict the outcome of any election just based on past trends, or an average of public opinion, and this is more true than it has ever been in this fast-paced changing landscape. Every major public opinion pundit in the business predicted in 2016 that there was no way Trump could win a national, presidential election. They were all wrong. Only Michael Moore and Glynn Wilson and David Underhill of The New American Journal called that race correctly, and they did it by knowing what was going on on the ground with people in places like Flint, Michigan and Mobile, Alabama.

Trump came to power in a highly technological and orchestrated working class revolt against Washington, elites and bureaucrats, the press and media, focusing on putting out a unified message appealing to every key word and phrase being used on the radio and social media by the disgruntled populous unhappy with their lives, politics and the government, especially the federal government.

Highly Related: How Wrestle­ Mania Trumped Intelligence in U.S. Politics

As we reported almost exclusively, Trump had already been doing research on what to say in a run for president even before Steve Bannon took over the campaign in August, and used Cambridge Analytica and Facebook user data to ramp up the messages of disgruntlement and smear Hillary Clinton in every way possible, even managing to turn Bernie Sanders Democrats against her in spite of his last minute endorsement.

The problem for Democrats – and this was evident in the 2024 campaign with either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris on the ticket – is that you can’t use old style political public relations in this new social media environment. Joe Biden – a mainstream, middle-of-the-road white male Democrat – broke through in 2020 because Democrats, many anti-Trump and especially college edited Republicans and independents were unified against Trump, mainly for his mishandling of the Covid pandemic. People were also tired of all the other crazy things he said and did, keeping the world in a constant uproar just with a few insane tweets on Twitter then, which were covered on every news channel, right, left and center. It was daily shock and awe, and it was exhausting to try to keep up with it all.

By 2024, Trump had continued to build his insurrectionist following about a stolen election even among Black men and Hispanic voters. It was bullshit propaganda based on lies. But it was covered as a legitimate news point of view by every media channel in the land, and dominated the discussion on every podcast on TikTok and YouTube. You could not get through a day without hearing it, unless you hid out in the woods in a campground with no broadcast channels on, which is what I did for the most part. Even public radio could not help itself. NPR covered every false word and tweet as if it was normal, and ran it over and over all day long on the radio and over the internet. Billions of dollars in free publicity, and now he wants to defund it?

By comparison, Biden and then Harris by then just sounded like any old political hack from the 20th century, and the majority of voters were just not having that shit. For the Democrats or independents to have any chance in the future, they are going to have to figure out some strategy for taking back the mainstream and alternative news agenda from the MAGA Trump right.

I’ve got a few ideas, but somebody is going to have to pay me big bucks to get involved to help them this time. I’m sick of covering daily news and politics for next to nothing anyway. I’m moving to California and working on a book about the history of rock and roll.

But if you ask me what the chances are of taking back both houses of Congress in 2026, I would say it’s way too soon to know. It’s not even 2026 yet. It depends on the candidates, the money they raise, how they use it, and many other variables, including what’s going on in the news in the country at election time – and how both sides handle it. But I doubt the bookies in Las Vegas would give the Democrats much of a chance in the current environment. We will see. Don’t hold your breath. If Trump keeps a majority in both houses of Congress, and this Supreme Court keeps going along with his coup d’é·tat of our democracy, get ready to run for the hills, or Canada.

The Democrats and independent candidates for Congress should already be raising money and working hard, using this message in their campaigns – promising to impeach Trump again in the House, and this time to convict him in the Senate and remove him from office. It is no longer a viable strategy to play it safe on “kitchen table” issues. This is the only way to fire up democrats and get the press to change the narrative and cover the damn story.

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