Public Opinion Analysis –
By Glynn Wilson –

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A majority of registered voters in the United States, 51 percent, say they approve of the indictment of former President Donald Trump on fraud charges for his role in a scheme to pay hush-money to adult film star Stormy Daniels to hide the sexual affair from voters before the 2020 election.

Many Republicans voters are not onboard, however, according to a Morning Consult poll conducted immediately after the legal action was announced on Thursday.

While 83 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of independents say they approve of the indictment, 38 say they disapprove, a number that corresponds closely to the 36 percent of voters who still hold favorable views of Trump in a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday.

Among Republican voters who said they plan to participate in the 2024 Republican Presidential nominating process in their state, 70 percent say they do not approve of Trump being indicted, apparently on any charges, many claiming they believe the indictment is political.

Overall, 46 percent of voters think the grand jury’s decision was primarily informed by evidence that Trump committed a crime, while 43 percent say the overriding cause for its conclusion was motivation to damage the former president’s political career, a view held by 78 percent of potential Republican primary voters.

The News is Out

About 82 of the public surveyed said they had seen, read or heard at least “some” about Trump’s indictment by Friday, including a similar share of potential Republican primary voters, showing the story has gotten out far and wide on most channels people use to keep up with the news, including social media.

“The news is certain to penetrate more voters’ minds in the coming days as more is learned about the specific charges and with Trump expected to appear at a Manhattan courthouse to be arraigned on Tuesday,” Morning Consult analysts say.

Following Thursday’s big news, Trump took aim at New York County District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, who’s overseeing the hush-money case, casting the investigation as “Political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history.”

Republicans on Capitol Hill have been targeting Bragg’s probe since even before the indictment was announced.

“The survey shows that Trump’s attacks resonate with the Republican base, and the news cycle on the indictment, which has percolated for weeks, has yet to shake his standing among Republican voters,” analysts say, similar to what happened after the FBI raided his Mar-a-Lago home as part of a separate federal investigation into his handling of classified documents.

Further analysis of the channels voters use to consume news would no doubt show that those who continue to support Trump follow mainly conservative infotainment sources such as Fox News, which tend to take Trump’s side in calling the case political. This is proof of the power of the media to influence public opinion, in this case contrary to the legal truth.

Should Trump Stop Campaigning While He’s Under Indictment?

Among the overall electorate, 58 of registered American voters say Trump should shut down his presidential campaign while he is under indictment, including 60 percent of independents and 84 percent of Democrats.

Two out of three Republican voters still say Trump should run for president, nearly unchanged from a Morning Consult poll conducted in early March.

“Trump’s own fueling of speculation about his indictment earlier this month before he was indicted did nothing to shake his status as the GOP’s presidential front-runner, and he continued to poll close to President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general-election matchup,” according to Morning Consult’s 2024 GOP Primary Tracker.

Methods

The Morning Consult survey was conducted March 31, 2023, among a representative sample of 2,034 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

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