Public Opinion Analysis –
By Glynn Wilson –
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Are you feeling basically optimistic or pessimistic about 2023 as we head into the new year?
It’s understandable why people would be careful about predicting a great year ahead considering everything that’s happened in the U.S. and the world since 2016.
If you are an eternal optimist who always seems to believe the glass is half full instead of half empty, I suspect that has more to do with what’s going on in your personal life and career than what’s going on in the country and the world.
But I suppose I could be wrong.
According to an end of the year Gallup poll, Americans appear to be pretty pessimistic about 2023, with surveys showing a mostly gloomy outlook for the U.S.
Majorities of Americans predict negative conditions in 12 of 13 economic, political, societal and international indicators, coming off several challenging years since 2016, when Trump took the country down a fascist rabbit hole and then botched dealing with a global pandemic that negatively impacted everyone’s life, even if they abided by all the health recommendations and never got the coronavirus.
Gallup didn’t spend any time asking about it in this survey, but wild swings in the weather due to climate change caused by global warming from the burning of fossil fuels also has an impact on whether people are optimistic or pessimistic going into the new year. People have seen the effects on the ground of more and stronger hurricanes and tornadoes, out of control wildfires, and rising sea levels as glaciers melt.
Of course there were some hopeful outcomes as it concerns American Democracy in 2020 and 2022, when Trump lost his bid for reelection in 2020 and then vaccines helped get much of the country outside again by the spring of 2022. The midterm elections did not turn out as bad as many pollsters predicted, and the economy is not in the recession tank, at least not yet.
But when asked about economic issues heading into the new year, about 80 percent of Americans are not optimistic about the economy. Some worry about higher taxes and/or the growing budget deficit. About 60 percent seem to think inflation will continue to be a problem with prices continuing to rise, and the stock market continuing to fall.
About 50 percent of Americans believe unemployment will go up in 2023, although as of the end of 2022, it’s about the lowest it has been, like ever. It’s not clear that Americans are basing their opinions on factual information, with many turning to partisan sources of news.
About 90 percent of Americans expect 2023 to be a year of political conflict, and they are probably right about that, since the Republicans who have taken over the House have vowed to make it so.
About 72 percent think the crime rate will rise.
And 56 percent believe there will be strikes by labor unions.
ON the world stage, 85 percent of Americans say the year ahead will most likely be fraught with international discord, more so than peace.
About 64 percent of Americans think the power of the United States in the world will decline, and 73 percent say they think China’s power will go up.
But a similar number, 64 percent, expect the power of Russia in the world will go down further in 2023, clearly a reflection of that country’s recent setbacks in its war against Ukraine.
Most Important Problem
When asked about the most important problems facing the country, people worried most about the government itself, with the economy and inflation next.
“Confidence in the economy remains among the worst readings measured (by Gallup) since the (Bush) Great Recession,” the Gallup analyists say.
This drop in confidence, they say, is largely due to the highest inflation in the U.S. in more than 40 years, which a majority of Americans say is causing financial hardship in their household.
In addition, the public’s perceptions of local crime reached a record-high and national crime perceptions edged up.
Democrats More Hopeful Than Republicans
Party identification is the greatest demographic differentiator in predictions for 2023, Gallup says, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to offer positive predictions for all of the dimensions asked about.
“This is a typical phenomenon whereby Americas who identify with the sitting president’s party are more positive in general in their outlook for the year ahead,” Gallup says.
It’s also a function of where Americans get their news, with far more Republicans turning to partisan sources like conservative talk radio and Fox News than mainstream, fair and balanced news.
Majorities of Democrats foresee five positive developments in 2023.
They see full or increasing employment (69%), a (more) reasonable rise in prices (53%), a rising stock market (53%), an increase in U.S. power (56%) and a decrease in Russian power (79%). Democrats are least likely to predict political cooperation (13%) and a peaceful year mostly free of international disputes (21%).
Meanwhile, 61 percent of independents and 47 percent of Republicans expect Russian power in the world will decrease. Aside from the 36 percent of Republicans who expect few labor union strikes in the year ahead, no more than 23 percent of Republicans expect a positive outcome for any of the other 11 dimensions.
Apparently, if asked the right questions in the right context, they would favor fascism and authoritarian dictatorship over actual democracy.
Bottom Line
“Americans are greeting 2023 with great skepticism and little expectation that the economic struggles that closed out 2022 will abate,” Gallup says. “Few U.S. adults also predict the partisan politics that plague the nation will improve, not an unreasonable expectation given that there will be divided government in 2023 after Republicans won control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
“The public’s predictions for international affairs are similarly pessimistic. However, with their party controlling the White House (and the Senate), Democrats are more hopeful about the year ahead,” Gallup says.
Methods
These findings are from a Dec. 5-19 nationally representative web survey of U.S. adults who are members of Gallup’s probability-based panel. Gallup has asked Americans for their predictions for the coming year intermittently over the years starting in 1960. The prior surveys were conducted by in-person or telephone interviews, and the results are not directly comparable to the current data collected by self-administered web survey. However, historical data have generally shown that Americans’ forecasts for the coming year are largely dependent on their views of the domestic and international climates at the time. Likewise, recent Gallup polling underscores the public’s gloomy outlook in 2023 predictions on domestic issues.
