Staff Report –
WASHINGTON, D.C. — A majority of registered voters in the United States, 56 percent, believe President Donald Trump does not deserve to be reelected, while just 43 percent say he does, according to the latest Gallup poll on the subject.
The percentage of voters who say Trump deserves reelection to a second term is down seven percentage points from Gallup’s previous measure in January — a much different time in Trump’s presidency, when confidence in the U.S. economy was high, the Senate was preparing to vote to keep Trump in office during his impeachment trial, and only a few cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed in the U.S.
The percentage of voters who currently say Trump deserves to be reelected matches his latest overall job approval rating from the same poll. Gallup’s previous measures of Trump’s reelection deservedness were each within three points of his approval rating, and the significance to reelection is clear.
“Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50 percent or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50 percent have lost,” Gallup says.
As expected, nearly all Republicans (93%) say the president deserves to be reelected, while few Democrats (3%) agree. Among independents, only 36 percent say Trump deserves reelection and 61 percent say he does not, a damning number that should doom his reelection chances. Elections are largely decided on the margins by how independent voters swing.
“Trump secures small majorities of support for his handling of the economy and his recent U.S. Supreme Court nomination, but the current percentage of voters who see him as deserving of a second term falls short of the 50 percent percent mark less than two weeks away from Election Day,” Gallup concludes. “With little time left and many Americans voting early, this could pose a challenge for Trump’s prospects in November. The president’s last best chance to sway voters in his favor may be in Thursday’s final presidential debate — though historically, debates have rarely changed voter preferences.”
These results are from a Sept. 30-Oct. 15 Gallup poll.
